INESC TEC stands out in international exercise to compare wind power forecasting models

INESC TEC’s Power Systems Unit (USE) has won the first three places in four parameters as part of an international exercise to compare wind power forecasting models.

The team composed of researchers Ricardo Bessa, Joana Mendes and Erika Santos won the first, second and third places (the latter twice) as part of the “WIRE Benchmarking Exercise on Short-term Forecasting Models for Renewable Generation”, organised by the “Cost Action WIRE”.

In a scenario described in the exercise, the different research groups and companies had to evaluate the performance (in terms of forecasting error) of wind power forecasting algorithms. The teams were asked to submit deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for a certain time period different from the data provided. In order to respond to the challenge, the USE group used models developed in partnership with the Argonne National Laboratory for project ARGUS, in which INESC TEC researchers Vladimiro Miranda, Jean Sumaili, Ricardo Bessa, Hrvoje Keko and Joana Mendes also participated. The group combined information theory (based on the work by José Carlos Príncipe, president of INESC TEC’s Scientific Advisory Board) and wind power forecasting. “The wind power forecasting models developed by INESC TEC performed really well”, states the team member Ricardo Bessa.

At the end of the exercise, the team managed to win first and second places in probabilistic and deterministic forecasting, respectively, in a wind park located in Denmark. The researchers also won third place in probabilistic and deterministic forecasting in a wind park in Italy. “Considering that the group of participants comprised internationally renowned researchers, these results are yet another confirmation of INESC TEC’s high quality research results”, the USE researcher adds.

The results were presented at the “EWEA Wind Power Forecasting Workshop”, which took place between 3 and 4 December in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, which was attended by several research groups and international companies working in wind power forecasting. “It is important to stress that wind power forecasting is today an important and expanding business area, and so the models that provide a smaller forecasting error are quite appealing for this industry”, concludes Ricardo Bessa.

The INESC TEC researchers mentioned in this article are associated with the following partner institutions: INESC Porto and FEUP.